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Opinion: Surveys Predicting TDP Win Is 0%

Opinion: Surveys Predicting TDP Win Is 0%

Everything was going smoothly for TDP until about a month ago. There was a notable momentum in its political activities as it prepared to face YSRCP in the upcoming general elections. However, unexpectedly, the tide has turned, and TDP finds itself on a downward trajectory, almost grounded.

Let's compare this scenario with what happened in the Telangana state elections in December 2023. 

Until three months before the Telangana elections, TRS was sailing smoothly, with many assuming it would emerge victorious. However, as the elections drew nearer, it became evident that it would be a tough battle between TRS and Congress, with the latter gaining prominence. Closer to the elections, around 70% of the surveys predicted a Congress victory, largely attributing it to the effective campaign led by Revanth Reddy, who successfully harnessed the anti-incumbency wave within just three months through vigorous efforts, including extensive campaigning and advertisements. Eventually, Congress claimed victory, with Revanth emerging triumphant.

Now in AP, the situation regarding the dynamics between the incumbent party and the opposition is reversed.

YS Jagan Mohan Reddy maintained a low profile until a month ago but suddenly intensified his efforts with "Siddham" meetings, which have been uniquely designed and are making a significant impact on voters. 

He has been outlining his accomplishments over the past five years and warning about the perils of electing any party other than YSRCP. 

With no alliances to manage, Jagan has complete control over his campaign and speeches, akin to Revanth Reddy's role in the Telangana elections. The anti-incumbency sentiment whichever is there even in small fragments in AP is gradually diminishing as there is no effective counter-campaign from the TDP.

Chandrababu faces numerous limitations in mounting an effective campaign due to his alliance with Janasena, compounded by the delay in seat allocation and discussions about a potential alliance with the BJP.

Consequently, the TDP leadership and ranks are struggling to resonate with the mood of winning as the elections draw near.

Furthermore, the absence of Lokesh raises suspicions that the TDP leadership has lost confidence in its chances of winning and is not actively engaging in the campaign. The lack of visibility of TDP leaders across the state also indicates a sense of dullness, foreseeing a significant defeat.

Surprisingly, even the NRIs, who were once vocal supporters of TDP have quieted down, showing a lack of confidence in the party. 

Above all, with less than two months until the election, there are still many unanswered questions regarding the TDP-Janasena alliance. 

With all this, there is no TDP wave in the state, while the YSRCP wave continues unabated, with Jagan Mohan Reddy's campaign gaining momentum.

Another noteworthy aspect is the absence of any national media surveys predicting victory for the TDP-Janasena alliance. Every survey indicates a clear win for YSRCP, except for a few biased surveys by regional yellow media outlets. This contrasts with the situation in Telangana two months ago, where around 40% of surveys favored TRS, highlighting the gravity of the situation. In spite of that TRS lost. Now it is easy to imagine the plight of TDP-Janasena allaince with 0% surveys predicting its win. 

It's unfortunate to see Chandrababu caught in his own web of alliances, unable to make decisive, efficient, and effective decisions. His fear to fight all alone seems to be his greatest adversary in this critical juncture.

Madhunandan Akkishetty


Tags: Jagan TDP Andhra Pradesh Chandrababu Naidu