The results of the Bihar Assembly election have taken the entire nation by surprise.
The NDA emerged triumphant with 202 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) was restricted to only 35 seats, AIMIM secured 5 and others managed just 1 seat.
What has shocked many observers is that not a single exit poll came close to predicting NDA victory with so many seats.
Most projections failed to touch even the 200 seat mark, raising serious questions about the reliability of exit polls in general.
This mismatch has sparked widespread doubt about whether exit polls are conducted properly, or whether some of them are simply fabricated.
Many exit polls appear each election season with different numbers, and when their predictions happen to align with actual results, they claim credit and gain attention. When they miss the mark, they are quietly ignored.
In the Bihar scenario, every exit poll missed with regard to number of seats that NDA would win, and this collective failure has intensified scrutiny.
It is widely believed that certain agencies do not conduct field surveys at all. Instead, they rely on drawing-room discussions, speculative tables and superficial interpretations before releasing their findings to the media.
With none of the exit polls accurately estimating the NDA’s final tally, suspicions about the authenticity of these exercises are multiplying.
A detailed case study could reveal significant insights into how exit polls are conducted in India. Considering Nitish Kumar’s decade-long tenure in power, some level of anti-incumbency was expected, which should have benefited the opposition.
Yet, with the MGB reduced to just 35 seats, doubts about exit poll methodology and about what truly reflects public sentiment; are growing stronger than ever.
