As the battlelines are drawn for the prestigious by-election to Jubilee Hills assembly seat, political analysts are getting busy to assess the winning prospects of key players – the Congress, the Bharat Rashtra Samithi and the Bharatiya Janata Party.
The seat was held by the BRS for the last three terms, represented by Maganti Gopinath, whose sudden death necessitated the by-polls.
This time, too, the BRS declared its candidate Magunta Sunita well in advance, and swung into campaign much before the schedule was announced.
According to an analyst, the BRS was in a kind of advantageous position till last week. But the latest reports indicate that the swing is in favour of the ruling Congress.
A mix of caste arithmetic, local dynamics, and strategic manoeuvring by chief minister A Revanth Reddy has shifted the momentum.
The analysts say Revanth has called the shots at the high command by getting the party ticket allotted to Naveen Yadav, overcoming internal competition and Delhi lobbying by seniors.
BRS circles tried to portray Revanth as politically isolated, claiming he was denied access to the Congress high command — but the chief minister’s silent moves proved otherwise.
Though BRS working president K T Rama Rao has launched an active campaign well in advance, the party has several disadvantages due to various scams that were brought out by the present Congress government.
Added to this, low urban voter turnout and limited sympathy resonance will be disadvantageous to the BRS.
Another advantage for the Congress is the decision of AIMIM not to contest the by-election, especially with a sizable Muslim electorate – nearly 1.24 lakh accounting for 34% of the total voters, in the constituency.
The Congress has also pushed its development agenda aggressively — from Rs 100 crore for local works to new land allocations for a kabristan — aiming to consolidate minority support.
Settler votes — primarily Kamma and Kapu communities — are expected to split. Though TDP and Jana Sena officially maintain neutrality, sources indicate a quiet understanding to back the BJP candidate to damage BRS prospects.
Even if BJP doesn’t win, a strong showing could fragment the anti-Congress vote and hurt BRS.
“For TDP, the goal is simple — defeat BRS, even if it means backing BJP,” a political observer noted.
Coming to sympathy wave, it did not work for the BRS in the Dubbaka bypoll in 2020, when it fielded the widow of its late MLA Solipeta Ramalinga Reddy — and still lost to BJP’s Raghunandan Rao.
In 2024, too, the BRS could not get the sympathy vote in Secunderabad cantonment by-poll where it fielded late G Sayanna’s daughter, but she lost to the Congress.
