The first big prediction came five years ago during the Bengal elections.
“BJP will struggle to cross double digits and will get less than 100 seats in West Bengal. If they do, I will quit my work,” Prashant Kishor declared in December 2020.
He was right; the BJP ended with 77 seats.
Cut to 2025, Kishor made another dramatic prediction ahead of the Bihar elections:
“Write this down. JDU will not win more than 25 seats on its own. If this doesn’t happen, I will quit politics. After this election, the very existence of JDU will be in question.”
This time, Kishor was spectacularly wrong. Nitish Kumar’s JDU won 85 seats, more than three times Kishor’s prediction; while Kishor’s own party finished at the bottom in its debut election.
Prashant Kishor was once seen as an election genius. His work for Narendra Modi in 2012 helped secure a third consecutive term in Gujarat, and his strategy for the 2014 Lok Sabha election propelled Modi to Delhi.
His reputation soared after that, with only a few setbacks; most notably the Congress campaign in Uttar Pradesh in 2017.
In Bihar 2025, he repeatedly stated; sometimes in writing; that JDU would collapse below 25 seats and that Nitish Kumar’s time was over.
In interviews, Kishor said Nitish Kumar was no longer mentally or physically fit to run a state, citing his public slips, forgetfulness, and lack of media interaction.
He also claimed that a survey by his own party showed that 62% of Bihar’s voters wanted change.
But the voters chose continuity — and firmly. Nitish Kumar not only survived but performed far better than expected.
So where does that leave Kishor?
When asked to predict his own party’s performance, he used to say, “Arsh pe ya farsh pe” — either sky high or rock bottom.
He had even said that anything less than 125–130 seats would be a loss for him because he didn’t want a simple majority; he wanted a sweeping mandate.
He campaigned aggressively, laid out a detailed roadmap for Bihar’s development; schools, migration control, capacity building, corruption-free governance, and a new political culture.
He repeatedly said he would stay in Bihar for the next 10 years, committing himself fully to the state.
But there is one problem: He promised to quit politics if JDU crossed 25 seats. And that has now happened.
This is not the first time he has been in such a situation. During the Bengal 2021 elections, he also said he would quit if the BJP crossed 100 seats.
When early trends showed BJP leading in more than 120 seats, critics mocked him. But as the results settled, his prediction came true.
He said he had already planned to leave I-PAC, but was “glad” to exit on a winning note.
Now, once again, he faces a similar dilemma — but this time on the losing side.
His bio on X reads: “Revere Gandhi. Nonconformist. Egalitarian. Humanist. Believe in the Wisdom of Crowd.”
Since the Bihar results were announced, Prashant Kishor has remained silent. Everyone is waiting to see what he does next — or, given his recent pattern, what he says in his next interview.
