Pawan Kalyan, the leader of Jana Sena, recently discovered something after 10 years of party formation. He now believes that his caste, Kapu, holds significant power in Andhra Pradesh, and he must embrace it to secure his political future. This stance has caused the party's goal of transcending caste and religion to take a backseat while he promotes the Kapu slogan. The recent Janasena Avirbhava Sabha provided a platform for this.
The TDP is apprehensive about the Kapu slogan's impact, knowing that Pawan has hinted at an alliance with them repeatedly. They fear losing support from other castes if they align with Kapus.
While it is admirable that Pawan calls for Kapus, Balijas, Telagas and Ontaris to play a more significant role as a collective community, it is important to remember that the community and related castes do not have amicable relations with other social classes in the state.
Political analysts suggest that Pawan must communicate effectively with all communities, particularly his own. The TDP believes that the Kshatriyas, BCs, minorities, Dalits, and other disadvantaged groups oppose Kapus for various reasons.
The TDP leadership recognizes that many people are opposing Pawan's leadership, including the previously mentioned social groups. This realization has caused Chandrababu, Lokesh, and other important leaders to refrain from discussing an alliance with Pawan.
During a recent padayatra, Lokesh even questioned who mentioned that the alliance with Janasena is on cards. TDP leaders privately express doubts if even Kapus would support them if they form an alliance with Pawan.
The TDP leaders also note that Kapus did not vote for Pawan, resulting in his defeat in two constituencies. They question in such a scenario how they can trust that Kapus will vote for TDP. Additionally, the TDP is concerned that the campaign promoting an alliance between Pawan and the party will drive BCs to support Chief Minister YS Jagan, with 75% already expressing positivity towards him.
Political analysts predict that certain social groups will oppose Pawan and support YCP fully in the near future. While Balijas in Rayalaseema may accept an alliance with TDP, the party's leaders are hesitant about campaigning on the coastal AP. They worry that Chandrababu will face fierce opposition from Kapus if they give only 20-25 assembly seats to Jana Sena.
There is a possibility that Kapus may act against TDP, believing that Chandrababu cheated Pawan, a member of their social group, for political gain. This was made evident by Kapu leader and former minister Harirama Jogaiah, who expressed his doubts and anger towards TDP's campaign directly in front of Pawan.
During the recent Janasena Avirbhava Sabha, second-tier leaders openly demanded that Pawan be made the Chief Minister. If Pawan goes against Jana Sena leaders and workers, he risks defeat once again. The TDP is concerned that they may pay a heavy price for aligning with Pawan, alienating other social groups and losing support from Kapus. In the future, the TDP may consider freeing Pawan to follow their strategy.
