Despite Donald Trump’s public claims that he deserves the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize for “ending seven wars,” AI chatbot ChatGPT estimates his chances of winning at just 5% to 8%.
According to ChatGPT, the Nobel Committee is more likely to honor a political leader or organization dedicated to human rights, democracy, or peace-building, giving them a 65%–70% chance of winning. Meanwhile, humanitarian or press freedom organizations have about a 20% probability of receiving the prize.
When asked who might win the Nobel Peace Prize 2025, ChatGPT responded: “The Nobel Peace Prize 2025 could go to a human rights defender, a pro-democracy group, or a humanitarian organization focused on Ukraine, Gaza, or press freedom. The Committee is expected to favor non-political, unifying figures rather than divisive leaders.”
Why Trump’s Chances Are Slim
ChatGPT explained that the Nobel Committee avoids politically polarizing figures, especially those who publicly campaign for the award. It noted that several of Trump’s actions are inconsistent with the long-term peace and cooperation ideals typically recognized by the committee.
The AI outlined several reasons for his low odds:
Public lobbying damages credibility – Trump’s self-promotion contradicts the Nobel Committee’s preference for humility and neutrality.
Mixed peace record – While he brokered some ceasefires, he also withdrew from international treaties, initiated trade wars, and escalated rhetoric.
Deadline issues – Some of his reported nominations for 2025 were submitted after the February 1 cutoff, making them ineligible.
Expert consensus – Analysts from Reuters, Time, and Associated Press have all described his chances as “extremely slim.”
In summary, ChatGPT predicts that the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize is far more likely to go to a global humanitarian or rights-focused organization than to Donald Trump, despite his self-proclaimed achievements in ending wars.
