The judgment day is coming up in a few hours and the people are eagerly awaiting the judgment. At this juncture, many assumptions are being made with various permutations and combinations.
Some say that Sri Krishna Committee will be just suggestive and will not make any judgment. Some say that it would affect a lot. Here is an analysis from our reader Venu Lingamaneni who presents various possibilities of the result of Sri Krishna Committee.
SCENARIO -1
If Srikrisha Committee advised to split state:
TELANGANA
TRS: Will Gain would be leading party in Telangana(more than 50%).
TDP: Will be minority party in Telangana(More than 25%).
Congress: Will Be minority party in telangana(More than 25%)
PRP: Might merges to congress or might tie up with other party to get some seats.
BJP: Will increase the presence (more than 20%)
CPI: Will increase the presence (close ties with WestWings/RedGroups/Naxals)
CPM: Will increase the presence (close ties with WestWings/RedGroups/Naxals)
MIM: Looses secured place in united Andhra. Worries with BJP & TRS
YSR/Jagan: Might tie up with Non-Congress, Non-TDP parties (TRS, BJP, PRP).
ANDHRA/RAYALASEEMA
TDP: Will be Majority party in SeemAndhra(More than 50%).
Congress: Will Be minority party in in SeemAndhra (More than 25%)
PRP: Might merges to congress or might tie up with other party to get some seats.
BJP: Will Loose the presence(less than 10%)
CPI: No Change
CPM: No Change
MIM: No Change
YSR/Jagan: Will Be Majority Party in in SeemAndhra (More than 50%).
SCENARIO -2
If Srikrisha Committee advised NOT to split state:
TELANGANA
TRS: Will Gain would be leading party in Telangana(more than 50%).
TDP: Will be minority party in Telangana(More than 25%).
Congress: Will Be minority party in telangana(More than 25%)
PRP: Might merges to congress or might tie up with other party to get some seats.
BJP: Will increase the presence (more than 20%)
CPI: Will increase the presence (close ties with WestWings/RedGroups/Naxals)
CPM: Will increase the presence (close ties with WestWings/RedGroups/Naxals)
MIM: Looses secured place in united Andhra. Worries with BJP & TRS
YSR/Jagan: Might tie up with Non-Congress, Non-TDP parties (TRS, BJP, PRP).
ANDHRA/Rayalaseema
TDP: Will be Majority party in in SeemAndhra (More than 35%).
Congress: Will be Majority party in in SeemAndhra (More than 30%)
PRP: Might merges to congress or might tie up with other party to get some seats.
BJP: Will Loose the presence(less than 10%)
CPI: No Change
CPM: No Change
MIM: No Change
YSR/Jagan: Will Be Majority Party in in SeemAndhra (More than 35%).
In above 2 Scenarios the beneficiaries are in descending Order:
TRS: Would be benefit either way
TDP: Will loose in telangana but gains in seemandhra.
Jagan: Will loose in telangana but gains in seemandhra.
Congress: Will loose in both places. Remains minority in both places.
Options in front of Central Government:
1) Try to keep as it is state as long as they can...postpones the decision ...
2) If Situation worsens, would call for Central Rule, since Governor Narasimhan already accepted by majority of andhrites as strict administrator.
3) IN either case, if MLAs resign central govt. would loose state. If MPs resign Central government would fall.
4) Government has to make a decision which does not involve with MPs resignation.
5) Andhra MPs and Telangana MPs would be key to keep central government.
(Venu Lingamaneni can be reached at [email protected])
