Prior to December 2013 assembly elections in the 5 states, Congress main aim would have been chalking out strategies to regain power in 2014.
One could say, Telangana separation is also part of this strategy, in winning majority seats in Telangana region with the help of TRS and majority seats in Seemandhra with the help of YSRCP.
The dismal performance in the elections in the 4 states would have forced Congress to re-think their strategy. Rather than working out to form a government, which is next to impossible, Congress will try to cut the strong wind that is blowing in favour BJP and force a hung parliament.
If the analysis stands true, Congress found a new saviour in the form of AAP. All Congress might do is help AAP prove their abilities in delivering their promises and increase their party stature in the public. It is not as easy as we think, because, some of AAPs promises also include probing the faults of previous governments. The immediate impact of this will be a probe on the state of affairs during Shiela Dixit’s tenure. This will definitely create lot of furore within Congress ranks but, if we see the way Congress handled the Telangana Bill by putting aside the views of its own party people in AP, it makes us believe that they will be ready to ignore the internal disgruntlement in Delhi too. This sort of sacrifice from Congress can help thrust AAP into national politics and split the anti-incumbency votes. As a matter of fact, one percent swing in votes also can make a very big dent to BJPs majority. That’s how party calculations work.
On the other hand, BJP would also be very prepared to foil any such strategies from Congress. The grand victory in the four states would definitely make BJP re-think to bring the 2014 elections fast forward. It would be unwise for any party to wait till June 2014 in forming a government, when the tide is so strong in their favour.
Two of the major factors that always played a vital role in Indian elections are ‘Sentiment’ and ‘Frustration (anti-incumbency factor)’. Whenever those two things are there, nothing else comes their way. Currently both these things are inclined towards BJP. It has to make best use of them, before AAP recovers and make a dent.
Where will the T-Bill fit in between all these need to be seen? Based on the above analysis, if one has to believe, Congress may not be that keen on Telangana as much as it was few months ago. Their strategy is also failing in this regards, since TRS is still adamant by not merging with Congress.
In such instance, Congress will try to conclude the issue somehow by some damage mitigating exercise, as they started this whole thing. On the other hand, BJP will trounce on any opportunity like the no-confidence motion by 6 Seemandhra MPs etc to pull the government plug. If this happens, there will be no parliament at all for any bills to get approved.
So many obstacles lie enroute for the T-Bill!
