India’s newest state of Telangana is to be carved out of its first linguistically demarcated unit, but the Congress would be obliterated in Andhra Pradesh if the Lok Sabha polls were to be held now.
An India Today Group- CVoter opinion poll conducted across Andhra Pradesh earlier this week reveals a nearcomplete wipeout of the Congress.
The polarisation of votes across Andhra that has marked the runup to the passage of the Telangana Bill in Parliament is so extreme that the successor states will vote overwhelmingly for one party, Telangana for Telangana Rashtra Samiti ( TRS) and Seemandhra for Jaganmohan Reddy’s YSR Congress.
The Congress, boosted into power in 2009 by the 33 Lok Sabha seats it won of the 42 in Andhra Pradesh, is projected to come up with one seat each in the two successor states.
The Bharatiya Janata Party ( BJP) is predicted to win one seat in Telangana and the Telugu Desam Party ( TDP) is set to take six seats.
The 2009 elections were no fluke. Andhra Pradesh, India’s original ricebowl state, has been a favorite hunting ground for the Congress; it took 29 seats in the 2004 elections. In other words, a Congress or Congress- led government at the Centre is more or less predicated on a good show in Andhra Pradesh.
The India Today Group- CVoter poll has thrown up a range of interesting findings. In Seemandhara, two- thirds of the population blames the Congress for the bifurcation, while in Telangana, the TRS seems to be laughing all the way to the votebank with the credit for facilitating the creation of the new state.
The Congress is simply not a major player in the rump state of Seemandhra any more.
The possible alliances in to- be divided Andhra Pradesh are beginning to get complicated already. In Seemandhra, Jagan is far ahead of everyone else. This is more bad news for the Congress, because Jagan will not join hands with them. In Telangana, TRS is said to be soft on the Congress. In both Seemandhara and Telangana, TRS may go with the Congress.
On the leadership front, the divide is as clear as the new state border that is coming up. Jagan reigns supreme in Seemandhara and K. Chandrasekhar Rao in Telangana. Chandrababu Naidu is a distant second in both. The TDP has an existing voter base in both regions but the currently charged environment is not helping its cause.
In terms of party branding, the BJP comes in second place after the TRS in Telangana while the TDP comes second in Seemandhara. So while the TDP stares at a bleak future in Telangana and the BJP in Seemandhra, they could derive mutual benefit by teaming up. Due to the possibility of split voting at the Assembly and Lok Sabha level, this could just work, particularly in Telangana.
In terms of vote share, Congress has less than 10 per cent in both regions.
The BJP has a miniscule vote share in Seemandhara but is in second position in Telangana.
The TDP has about 30 per cent vote share in Seemandhra.
If the TDP and BJP join hands, their vote share will almost be 35 per cent and the contests in this region will become much more bipolar.
In terms of caste combinations, there is varied polarization in both regions. In Seemandhara, the Reddys are voting for Jagan while the Kammas are for TDP, but a big chunk for Jagan is coming from the Kapus. Kapus voted for Chiranjeevi in the last elections, but even though Chiranjeevi has merged with the Congress, they aren’t voting Congress at all.
Jagan is also getting the Brahmin and Yadav votes. The Kamma vote share for the TDP is not good enough.
In Telangana, the TRS is getting support from all caste groups. While the TDP is managing some votes from the Kammas, it is getting very little support from the Reddys. The Telangana vote pattern is very much on regional lines.
Traction for the BJP in Telangana would mean a polarisation of the anti- Congress vote to the Right. Also, because it is widely suspected that the BJP and TDP may come together, the Kammas and Kapus will vote for this alliance. The Brahmins and Reddys will still vote TRS. A TDP- BJP alliance thus has much better prospects in Telangana.
But TDP on its own has no chance.
As far as the Congress is concerned, it has no chance unless it goes with the TRS. This alliance though is unlikely for the TRS may not want to risk getting bogged down by the current anti- Congress sentiment.
The YSR Congress Party, led by YS Jaganmohan Reddy, is likely to emerge as the strongest force in Seemandhra bagging 18 of 25 seats in its debut election.
Jagan's father Y.S. Rajasekhara Reddy remains the favourite chief minister of united Andhra Pradesh with a higher popularity in Telangana than in Seemandhra. If he were alive today, then Telangana would have never been created seems to be the view at the grassroots.
By itself, the Telugu Desam Party, led by N. Chandrababu Naidu, is not making much inroad in the two regions.
The party is projected to bag only 6 out of 42 seats in Andhra Pradesh, which mirrors its tally in the outgoing Lok Sabha.
Asaduddin Owaisi of the MIM retains his dominance in the Hyderabad seat.
Methodology of the poll:
CVoter conducted interviews of 1,500 randomly selected respondents in Telangana, Rayalaseema and coastal Andhra Pradesh on February 18 and 19 to understand their opinion on issues of Telangana formation.
Tracking data of 4,297 respondents across Andhra Pradesh during last eight weeks was also analysed to see the change in perception on the issue taking the total sample size to 5,797 respondents across all the regions. The data was weighted to known population profile to make it representative of state population.
There can be margin of error is +/- 3 per cent at state level and +/- 5 per cent at the regional level estimates. The grand total might sometimes yield a tally of 99 per cent or 101 per cent due to rounding off automation of figures by the computer.
Source: Mail Today
