As the elections are fast approaching, it is common that various agencies and media houses, besides political parties, conduct pre-election surveys to know the pulse of the people.
More often than not, the surveys conducted by some media houses, if not all, are prejudiced, as they are directly or indirectly affiliated to one or the other political party.
So, when they come out with these surveys, they appear incredible and are far from the ground realities.
Take for example, the latest pre-poll survey conducted by an agency War Room Strategies and Utopia Consulting for the popular television channel Times Now.
The channel is a known pro-BJP channel and obviously, the survey has also reflected its policies. It said BJP is likely to win 227 MP (-55) Seats, while the Congress could manage only 78 (+34) seats. It said NDA will have 238 seats after 2019 polls, whereas, all the other parties would collectively win 238 seats.
In all, the survey covered 12,879 respondents across 156 MP Constituencies located in 25 states participated in the survey. The agency says margin of error could be 0.5 per cent.
So far so good. A pro-BJP channel cannot predict a better outcome, keeping in view the prevailing situation. But what surprised many was its calculations in Andhra Pradesh.
It predicted that the BJP would win seven out of 25 MP seats in the state, as against the two it had won in 2014.
Now, one wonders what MP seats the BJP would win. Assuming that it would retain its two MP seats – Visakhapatnam (K Hari Babu) and Narsapuram (Gokaraju Ganga Raju), what are the other seats the party can win?
Let alone identifying the seats it can win, can the BJP identify seven strong leaders who can win the MP seats?
No big names can be found, except perhaps Daggubati Purandeshwari, Kavuri Sambasiva Rao and Krishnam Raju. But, can these three also win? And what are the seats? Even the BJP leaders are not able to believe this survey.
And the survey also predicts the Congress party can win three MP seats. Though the party is hoping to get back its identity and win two or three assembly seats, it has absolutely no hopes on the MP seats. How can the survey say it will win three MP seats?
Well, that is the kind of surveys agencies do, without understanding the local dynamics. If parties go by such surveys, they will be doomed!
