The latest India Today Mood of the Nation (MOTN) survey has indicated that the National Democratic Alliance led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi is certain to retain power for the fourth successive term in the next elections.
In Andhra Pradesh, too, the NDA led by Telugu Desam Party led by chief minister N Chandababu Naidu will retain power, while in Telangana, the Congress has fair chances of coming back to power but with tough fight from the Bharatiya Janata Party, rather than the Bharat Rashtra Samithi.
The survey indicates that if Lok Sabha elections were held today, the BJP would likely retain its dominance nationally, with Modi’s leadership on foreign policy and national security remaining key factors.
In Andhra Pradesh, the survey suggests that the sweeping mandate achieved by the NDA alliance in 2024 continues to hold firm. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the alliance secured 21 seats including TDP: 16 seats, Jana Sena: 2 seats and BJP: 3 seats, while the YSRCP won four seats.
The MOTN survey now projects an even stronger consolidation: The NDA vote share rising from 53% to 55% with seat projection increasing to 22–24 and YSRCP vote share slipping marginally from 40% to 39% with seat projection falling to 1–3.
The same pattern is expected be followed in the assembly elections as well, with the TDP-led coalition set to return to power with a comfortable margin.
Analysts attribute the NDA’s resilience primarily to the effective transfer of votes among coalition partners — a factor that historically challenges alliance politics but appears unusually successful in Andhra Pradesh at present.
The “Super Six” governance promises and early policy decisions are also believed to have created continued optimism.
While the YSRCP retains a significant vote base, the survey suggests that without allies, it faces difficulty converting votes into seats against a consolidated bloc. The Congress, under Y S Sharmila’s leadership, remains stagnant at around 6%, showing no signs of revival.
Telangana presents a contrasting picture. The survey points toward an increasingly bipolar contest between Congress and BJP, with the regional BRS struggling to regain its earlier centrality.
In 2024, the Congress and the BJP won 8 seats each and the BRS drew a blank. In the next elections, the Congress vote share rising slightly to about 41%, while the BJP holding ground despite marginal fluctuations. The BRS vote share improving slightly, but not enough to translate into seats.
Analysts argue that the decline of BRS has effectively shifted Telangana’s political contest into the framework of national parties, with Lok Sabha elections amplifying national-level considerations over regional identity.
