The stupendous performance of YSR Congress party president Y S Jaganmohan Reddy and his mother Y S Vijayalakshmi in the by-elections to Kadapa Lok Sabha seat and Pulivendula assembly seat is being viewed as a death-knell for the Congress party in the state.
Many people believe that the days of the Congress party in the state are numbered and in the coming years, it is going to be reduced to the level of a regional party, as is being witnessed in Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar; and that the Kiran Kumar Reddy government is the last Congress government in Andhra Pradesh; and that it would never able to come to power on its own in the state again. If at all it has form the government in the state again, it has to have a tie-up with either the Telangana Rashtra Samithi or YSR Congress party as is the situation in Maharashtra.
There are reasons to believe this argument. The Congress does not have a leader of stature who is acceptable to all the leaders in all parts of the state. Especially in the scenario when the Congress leaders are divided on regional lines, no leader from any region is acceptable to those in another region. So, no Congress leader can take the other leaders along with him in re-building the party.
Had the Congress leadership projected Jaganmohan Reddy as its leader in the initial stages itself in the pre-December 9, 2009 scenario, probably, things would have been brighter for the party by this time.
But even if Jagan returns to the Congress fold now, he might not be able to lead the party in both the regions because of the strong Telangana sentiment.
Does it mean the Congress has no chance to bounce back again? Does it not have any option but to succumb meekly to the YSR Congress party? Is it end of the road for the Congress? Well, it may be too early to answer such questions. But, there are die-hard optimists who feel that the Congress may be down temporarily, but not out completely. The immediate option before the Congress party to rejuvenate itself is to announce bifurcation of the state, even before Jagan declares his support to the Telangana statehood.
Simultaneously, the Congress high command should negotiate with Telangana Rashtra Samithi president K Chandrasekhara Rao to either merge his party with the Congress or be a permanent ally in the region. That will give a big life for the Congress in the Telangana region. In the Seemandhra region, there might be some outbursts from the integrationists, but since the people are by and large not opposed to the bifurcation, it might not be a big problem to tackle the situation there. A compromise on the status of Hyderabad between the leaders of both the regions, albeit for the time being, would solve the problem to a great extent.
Unless Jagan thrusts mid-term elections on the state by attracting majority of the MLAs into his camp, the Congress government might not have any survival problem for the next three years. In the meantime, the Congress would have to focus on strengthening the party in both the regions.
The Congress high command should stop taking the party MPs for granted and meting out ill-treatment to them. If Sonia gives top priority to the Congress leaders from the state, it can prevent the exodus of the Congress leaders into the Jagan camp.
As regards YSR Congress party, a lot of hype is being created in the media about Jagan’s strength. But by-elections in Kadapa is certainly not a yardstick for his party’s strength elsewhere in the state. If the Congress leadership can act wisely and take corrective measures, it may not find it difficult to tackle Jagan’s onslaught. Otherwise, bad days are certainly ahead for the Congress party.
