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Opinion: Election Surveys Are Like Panchanga Sravanam

Opinion: Election Surveys Are Like Panchanga Sravanam

Astrologers read Panchangam during Ugaadi every year, and it has become a regular practice for both the ruling and opposition party members to publicly organize 'Panchanga Sravanam.' 

During election years, it becomes a phenomenon where the Pundit hired by the ruling party predicts their victory, while the one hired by the opposition party foresees a change in governance.

It remains uncertain whether these predictions are based on astrology or simply crafted to flatter their clients' egos. Rational minds tend to lean towards the latter explanation.

This phenomenon extends to election surveys as well, with Lagadapati gaining the name of a political soothsayer due to his surveys. However, the success rate of such surveys is essentially a 50:50 chance, and even Lagadapati's credibility faltered when his 2019 survey turned out to be a big failure. People who believed in his survey lost money in betting. There were even rumors and conspiracy theories suggesting collusion with betting agencies, but the exact truth remains unclear.

Ultimately, positive surveys serve as morale boosters for leaders and their cadre, but they should not rely solely on favorable predictions without taking appropriate actions. 

Chandrababu Naidu, for instance, only wants positive surveys and dismissed Sunil Kanugolu for providing a negative survey regarding the TDP's 2024 election prospects recently. CBN embracing Robin Sharma, who gave a positive report, reflects a desire to hear what they want to hear. 

Surveying can be a profitable profession, leading some to provide pleasing surveys to their clients.

Similarly, Jagan Mohan Reddy appears complacent with the positive survey reports he receives from different sources, believing an easy victory awaits him in the upcoming elections. 

However, the actual result will remain unknown until the election concludes, as surveys can often be misleading until the true outcome is revealed. 

On the other hand, certain political parties resort to funding the national media to disseminate positive surveys about themselves. This tactic is akin to creating hype around an upcoming film release. However, in the end, voters are like the audience; they can't say which film will be a hit or a total flop in their hands. 

Similarly, despite all the predictions and sample surveys, the actual fate of elections remains uncertain. If these forecasts could accurately reflect the voters' choices, there would be no need to hold elections at all. The true mood and preferences of the voters are entirely unpredictable, and they hold the ultimate power to shape the electoral outcomes.

Usha Chowdhary

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