While Chiru be politically helped by aligning with Congress? Let us see.
What does the story of TRS tell us?
After three years of formation of party (PRP is going after two years only) TRS had electoral alliance with Congress in 2004. On victory at the hustings, they were offered ministerships and TRS accepted.
That was the end of the story of TRS as ‘movement-party’. Many T-supporters have distanced themselves from TRS blaming it for falling prey to lures of power. Then on TRS lost fighting spirit went only on political path thinking that struggle means resigning again and again.
After 9 years of existence, it is under pressure to get 11 seats back in by-elections. This is the danger of aligning oneself with ruling party. You lose the sheen of a fighter. You might say hundred things that “I will fight anti-people measures etc. etc.”. But public know your sympathies are with ruling party and you would not attempt anything drastic to upset them.
As far as your own cadre is concerned, once they start rubbing shoulders with rulers, they start looking beyond your shoulder. Congress could split TRS into half. Where is the guarantee that it won’t try its hand with PRP now? More so, when its majority is wafer-thin?
But one must admit that you cannot altogether avoid alliances in the present era. But there should be some reason and rhyme. If PRP has entered into electoral pact during GHMC elections, it is understandable. That time Congress, for its own internal reasons, did not come forth. Now for RS polls Congress asked Chiru and he said yes.
Is RS election such a great thing? Even without PRP support, they would have won. By roping in Chiru at this hour, Congress high command gave an impression that he is brought as an alternative to Jagan.
This is, to say the least, demeaning to Chiru.
If someone proposes to you on rebound, just because she is spurned by the other, would you accept such love? And what is the guarantee that lovers’ tiff lasts long? Supposing they patch up after a month or two, where will you stand?
In case of Jagan, can anyone say for sure that he will be kicked out of Congress? Or he would leave his parent party?
This kind of see-sawing is quite common in Congress. The high command keeps on asking Madhu Yashky, Kaka, VH etc. to keep quiet on T-issue. Digvijay or Moily send warnings that indiscipline would not be tolerated. Still these people talk. And they will be retaliated by Lagadapati, JC etc.
But no action from high command either on these or those. Nothing happens. Nobody is reprimanded.
A person like Chegondi wrote several letters to high command against YSR alleging worst things. While in Congress he used to say that once Chiru enters the fray, skies will fall and Congress would be swept off the feet in the state. Even then, he was not expelled. He went out on his own. (His PRP is joining hands with Congress now, imagine what he feels like).
There are inspired rumors that Jagan is going to join NCP, as if NCP has a big following in AP! Or he is going to start YSR Congress!
I don’t think anything of that kind happens. Every one of them knows brand value of Congress as an organization. And Congress too knows its strength is sum of individual strengths of some leaders.
Jagan’s followers cannot let go four more years of power. And Jagan, the industrialist cannot risk antagonism of central govt. So Jagan might make noise but may not bite. Similarly high command would not add one more headache to Rosaiah by expelling Jagan.
So ultimately nothing drastic might happen. There will be truce. Sonia might call Jagan to Delhi and he would sing kirtanas “Soniamma ma amma, Rajivudu ma thandri” and pledge his loyalty again.
If this scenario is really going to happen where does that leave Chiru? Chiru announced that his party will collaborate with Congress in local elections. This he did even before Congress confirmed it. Probably that is what they told to him behind closed doors. But they are not announcing it openly for their own political reasons.
But the delay has pushed Chiru into an awkward situation, giving an impression that he is more interested in alliance than Congress. It does not go well with his mega-star image.
TDP is saying that Congress is going to polls in 2014 elections with TRS as ally in T-area and with PRP in A-area. This way TDP wants to send a message that PRP is only a sub-regional party like TRS.
If PRP accepts this description it is belittling itself. But how to prove that they are relevant through out the state despite temporary hiccups? Only by touring T-area with some or other plank. Chiru has been promising to do that but did not muster enough courage to do so. He seems to calculate a lot.
By daring to go to Mahbubabad Jagan has displayed his guts. He might have been prevented but it is a different story. The very fact that he refused to be cowed down by T-agitators and attempted to fight for his democratic rights is noteworthy. (to be continued)
Chiru’s boldness was displayed when he opted for ‘United AP’ after Dec 9th statement. Normally he vacillates a lot before taking any decision. But he took that decision rather too quickly, I reckon. He could have collected some data about development of T-area (he did this later for Sri Krishna Committee) and before announcing support to united AP, could have argued that there is no need for state division. This would have lent some logic for his volte-face.
As of now, it looked as though he took that decision not out of conviction but with a view to strengthen himself in A-area. ‘He has nothing much to lose in T-area, so he dumped it’ - his own followers in T alleged and burnt his effigies.
With this background, it remains to be seen whether he would go for canvassing in by-elections? Definitely there are votaries for united AP even in T area and Chiru might attract their votes besides his fan following. His support will no doubt prove to be a shot in the arm for ruling party.
With this calculation will Congress allow him to go to those 12 constituencies, in the face of stiff opposition from T-agitators? If it does, it may have to allow Jagan too.
If Chiru has cinema fans behind him, Jagan has his father’s fans behind him. And he too proved himself to be a champion of integration. He ventured to hold the ‘united’ placard in the parliament braving the wrath of high command.
But in the present circumstances, it is unlikely that high command allows Jagan to canvass in T-area and at the same time, if it asks Chiru to do so, it looks as if it is acting partially. If Chiru is not handy for by-elections, what is that high command achieved?
Logically speaking Chiru-Congress combine is an ideal one. Chiru has a saleable face but not enough cadre and trained machinery to turn the glamour into votes. Congress has infrastructure but not a vote-catching face. So the blend should prove to be good. But where does that place Chiru in political terms?
MGR, while continuing in films, was having the same kind of arrangement with DMK without any position in the cabinet. He was merely an MLA. After two decades of such working relationship, Karunanidhi threw MGR out of the party and he had to start his own ADMK. It took five years for MGR to become CM after a long struggle. In that struggle his politically oriented films were of very good help.(to be concluded)
MBS Prasad
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