If Telugu Desam Party president N Chandrababu Naidu thinks he can prevent YSR Congress party from winning a Rajya Sabha seat by engineering defections, he is going to face disappointment.
As of now, as many as 17 MLAs from YSR Congress party defected to the TDP and the main Opposition still has 50 MLAs, who are sufficient to win the Rajya Sabha seat. The party might face troubles, if another 10 MLAs take a jump into the TDP, since it requires 42 MLAs to win the RS seat.
However, the defecting MLAs are of no use to the TDP. As per the latest Supreme Court directive in the case of Uttarakhand, MLAs who defect from their parent party to another party cannot vote in favour of their new party since they get automatically disqualified.
So, the 17 MLAs who had defected to the TDP cannot vote for the official candidate of TDP in the Rajya Sabha elections. So, Naidu cannot field a fourth candidate and get him elected with the help of defectors.
There is one chance for Naidu. If one-third of the YSR Congress party MLAs defect to the TDP and give a letter to the Speaker saying they are shifting their loyalties to the TDP en bloc, they would be treated as TDP members and they can vote for TDP candidate.
It does mean, not less than 23 YSRC members have to jump into TDP; so, the ruling party requires another six members. Even then, YSRC will have enough numbers to win the RS seat!
